Room 3001

Lidia CRUCES DE SOUSA (Franckfurt University) “Misreading the Biological Clock: Beliefs, Career, and Fertility Decisions.”

Abstract:Fertility rates in developed economies remain below replacement levels despite widespread intentions to have more children. We study how biased beliefs about biological fecundity affect women’s career and childbearing decisions. We build and calibrate a quantitative life-cycle model of college-educated, married women that features endogenous fertility and labor supply choices under heterogeneous biological fecundity and subjective beliefs. The model reproduces key fertility and employment moments in U.S. data and allows us to quantify the impact of correcting fertility misperceptions. Counterfactual experiments show that providing women with accurate information about either average or individual fecundity increases the total fertility rate by 12–14% and shifts births to earlier ages, with little effect on labor supply. Our findings highlight the potential of information-based fertility policies to complement traditional family policies such as childcare subsidies or parental leave.

Joint work : Francesco Saverio Lenzi, Alexander Ludwig, Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, and Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis.

Organizer : Suzanne BELLUE