Macro seminar
Time : 12h15 – 13h30
Date : 22 Avril 2024

Salle 3001

Marica VALENTE (University of Innsbruck) “Informal Employment From Migration Shocks”

Abstract: We propose a new “forensic” approach to detect and quantify informal employment resulting from irregular migration shocks. Focusing on a largely informal sector, agriculture, and on the exogenous variation from the Arab Spring wave on southern Italian coasts, we use machine learning techniques to document abnormal increases in reported (vs. predicted) labor productivity on vineyards hit by the shock. Misreporting is largely heterogeneous across farms depending e.g. on size and grape quality. The shock resulted in a 6% increase in informal employment, equivalent to one undeclared worker for every three farms on average and 23,000 workers in total over 2011-2012. Informal employment causes significant increases in farm profits by reducing labor costs. It does not affect grape sales and prices, and has only minor impacts on the wages of formal workers.

Organizers : Philippe CHONE (CREST), Patricia CRIFO